“The only certainty is a reasonable probability.”
Edgar Watson Howe, “Country Town Sayings”
“An approximate answer to the right problem is worth a good deal more than an exact answer to an approximate problem.”
Startups see fluid opportunities in dynamic environments, but no certainties before opportunities pass or the situation changes.
You have to act when you are about 60-70% confident, even 80% can be hard to achieve.
If you have all of the facts it’s not a decision it’s a choice.
“The shrewd guess, the fertile hypothesis, the courageous leap to a tentative conclusion–these are the most valuable coin of the thinker at work. But in most schools guessing is heavily penalized and is associated somehow with laziness.”
Jerome S. Bruner