The Foresight 2010 conference provided a clear view of where a number of key technologies were headed and what cost/performance improvements were likely.
At Foresight 2010 This Weekend
I will be at the Foresight 2010 conference on “Synergy of Molecular Manufacturing and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)” this weekend and will blog about the better sessions and anything else I learn.
Several rapidly-developing technologies have the potential to undergo an exponential takeoff in the next few decades, causing as much of an impact on economy and society as the computer and networking did in the past few. Chief among these are molecular manufacturing and artificial general intelligence (AGI). Key in the takeoff phenomenon will be the establishment of strong positive feedback loops within and between the technologies. Positive feedback loops leading to exponential growth are nothing new to economic systems. At issue is the value of the exponent: since the Industrial Revolution, economies have expanded at rates of up to 7% per year; however, computing capability has been expanding at rates up to 70% per year, in accordance with Moore’s Law. If manufacturing and intellectual work shifted into this mode, the impact on the economy and society would be profound. The purpose of this symposium is to examine the mechanisms by which this might happen, and its likely effects.
From Foresight 2010 conference home page
Four good sites to track new technologies:
Looking back from 2024
I suggested in 2012 that startups should focus on impact and innovation before growth, because it takes a long time to appreciate how a technology will mature. To do foundational work and move down the learn curve faster than your competitors in the early going requires patience. Bill Buxton offers several examples of this in “The Long Nose of Innovation” concluding, “The bulk of innovation is low-amplitude and takes place over a long period. Companies should focus on refining existing technologies as much as on creation.”