Innovation always feels like a gamble—especially when you’re bootstrapping. The difference between a good bet and a bad one can mean the life or death of your business. Yet too many founders rely on gut instinct.
This video shows how AI can help small business owners make smarter, leaner decisions without losing flexibility. Tristan Kromer explores how AI-powered forecasting can help you decide where to invest your time and money, giving you credible ranges and probabilities for outcomes instead of false certainty.
Key take aways:
- Traditional forecast spreadsheets are not testable
- Three requirements: model, estimates, and skill. User behavior models (user journeys) can be tested. So basing your forecast on user behavior models makes it testable.
- The width of the estimate range is a measure of your uncertainty
He cuts through the hype and talk about how AI can give founders sharper instincts, better forecasts, and the confidence to place smarter bets when the stakes are highest.
Full Using AI to Make Smarter Bets Video
Resources
View Slides
Financial Modeling Template
About Tristan Kromer
Innovation coach and founder of KroBar.ai, Tristan Kromer, has a vast background in aiding innovation teams, leaders, and startup ecosystems globally. With experience as a startup entrepreneur and corporate product manager, he advised government agencies, set up innovation boards, and trained global coaches. Tristan has supported a diverse set of organizations, including nonprofits like ChildFund and big brands like Unilever and Salesforce. Collaborating with over 30 tech accelerators such as Innovation Norway and Vinnova, he also donates time to offer free consultancy to budding entrepreneurs.
Follow Tristan on Bluesky and X