Harbinger or Outlier, Vision or Mirage, Threat or Opportunity

It’s hard to see things as they are and as they will become. Distinguishing between vision or mirage is a perpetual challenge for the entrepreneur.

Harbinger or Outlier,
Vision or Mirage,
Threat or Opportunity

“The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it, and exploits it as an opportunity.”
Peter Drucker in “Innovation and Entrepreneurship” (1985)

An event occurs, and an entrepreneur has to make three judgments about what kind of change it may portend:

1. Is this a harbinger of things to come or an outlier that represents a random event?
2. Does it offer a vision of a future you could create, or are you using your imagination to see a mirage? Are you connecting this change with others in a way that gives you a coherent vision of a future you could create, or are you seeing patterns and relationships that don’t really exist?
3. If this event is part of an emerging new order, does it represent an opportunity for growth, or is it more of a threat to your current model?

“We usually see only the things we are looking for—so much so that we sometimes see them where they are not.”
Eric Hoffer in “The Passionate State of Mind and Other Aphorisms“

Conventional wisdom, or commonly accepted beliefs about the future, can block you from seeing potential threats and opportunities. I think early-stage entrepreneurs are more at risk that the vision they are pursuing is a mirage–or a hallucination. Sometimes a subculture can develop a local consensus on future events or the interpretation of the implications of current events, that is strongly at variance with the conventional wisdom of society at large.

“In a theater, it happened that a fire started offstage. The clown came out to tell the audience. They thought it was a joke and applauded. He told them again, and they became still more hilarious. This is the way, I suppose, that the world will be destroyed-amid the universal hilarity of wits and wags who think it is all a joke.”
Soren Kierkegaard in “Either/Or: A Fragment of Life”

I think some businesses die this way as well. The founders don’t take certain risks seriously and fail to react to warnings in time to make a difference. Detecting the harbingers of real problems and separating them from outliers is a challenge.

“Beware lest you lose the substance by grasping at the shadow.”
Aesop, “The Dog and the Shadow”

Postscript – Looking at the Possibilities

With this 2 x 2 x 2 set of categories you end up with eight possibilities:

1. Vision of a Harbinger Threat: A clear view of a pattern of emerging threats.
   This is the worst case; it may only be an isolated threat or not a threat at all.
   Look for a jujitsu move that can turn a weakness into a strength or at least neutralize a weakness.
2. Vision of a Harbinger Opportunity: A clear view of a pattern of emerging opportunities.
   This is the best case; it may be an isolated opportunity or not a real opportunity at all.
   Entrepreneurial optimism can lead you to conclude you are in this situation than the evidence warrants. Stanley Kubrick advises: “Among a great many other things that chess teaches you is to control the initial excitement you feel when you see something that looks good. It trains you to think before grabbing, and to think just as objectively when you’re in trouble.”
3. Vision of an Outlier Threat: Clear view of an isolated threat.
   Second worst case: it’s a threat, but an isolated one.
   You can be wrong two ways: it’s a larger threat, or it’s not a threat. There is some wasted effort if it’s not a threat, but a substantial risk if it’s a really a harbinger.
4. Vision of an Outlier Opportunity: Clear view of an isolated opportunity.
   This is the second best case: you are chasing a small opportunity. Don’t neglect it, but it’s still worth looking for bigger opportunities.
5. Mirage of a Harbinger Threat: Mistaken view of a pattern of emerging threats.
   You are preparing for threats that won’t materialize.
   There is an opportunity cost to this if you are worried about a mirage, but some preparation is prudent regardless.
6. Mirage of a Harbinger Opportunity: Mistaken view of a pattern of emerging opportunities.
   You are chasing a set of opportunities that won’t materialize.
   Think about ways to test that it’s a real opportunity.
7. Mirage of an Outlier Threat: Mistaken view of an isolated threat.
   You are preparing for a risk that won’t materialize.
   Again, there is an opportunity cost to this if you are worried about a mirage, but some preparation is prudent regardless.
8. Mirage of an Outlier Opportunity: Mistaken view of an isolated opportunity.
   You are chasing a small opportunity that won’t materialize.
   This may be the default state until you gain more experience qualifying prospects and diagnosing their need.

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Image Credit:  Irochka  (Licensed from 123RF / ID: 3122938)

This post was published on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/harbinger-outlier-vision-miragethreat-opportunity-sean-murphy-qvaqc/