Video & Slides from “Limits of I’ll Know It When I See It” Talk at SFBay ACM

By | 2014-05-12T09:02:21+00:00 September 29th, 2009|Books, Events, skmurphy|8 Comments

Fora.tv did a nice video of my Wed-Sep-16 talk at SF Bay ACM on “The Limits of I’ll Know it When I See it.” Here are the slides in PDF format (see below for an outline with hyperlinks to references).

The talk was well received and garnered the following comments on the feedback forms.

  • “Nice distillation of  fundamentals in applying expertise effectively.”
  • “interesting ideas”
  • “a bit too fast, would appreciate a list of references.”
  • “Learned about new authors to check out, learned about new methods to work on teams.”
  • “References are Appreciated”
  • “Very Good Event!!”

Outline for The Limits of “I’ll Know It When I See It” Wednesday, Sep-16-2009 at  San Francisco Bay ACM Chapter

  • Overview
    • Individual Expertise
    • Effective Delegation
    • Blending Expertise In a Team
  • Questions for Audience: Role
    • Individual Contributor
    • Manager / Project Manager
    • Consultant
    • Solo Entrepreneur
    • Startup Founding Team
  • Questions for Audience: Discipline
    • Engineering
    • Sales & Marketing
    • Finance & Operations
    • Executive Management
  • Individual Expertise
    • I’ll Know It When I See It
      • Unconscious Competence
      • Not Available To Introspection
  • “I’ll Know It When I See It” Examples
    • Reading A Pap Smear
    • A Gestalt: Whole Is More Than Sum Of Parts
    • A Detail You See That Is Often Overlooked
  • What is Expertise?
    • “Experts perceive things that are invisible to novices, such as the characteristics of a typical situation. They make high-quality decisions under extreme time pressure. When difficulties arise, experts find opportunities for improvising solutions.”
    • Source: Gary Klein “Sources of Power
  • Example Of Expertise: Physician
    1. Elicit Symptoms (May Include Tests)
    2. Offer a Diagnosis (Root Cause Analysis)
    3. Explain Differentials (Sensitivity Analysis)
    4. Suggest a Prescription (Course of Action)
    5. Outline Prognosis (Likely Outcomes)
    6. Use Outcomes to Refine Rules & Models
  • Expertise: Personal Mastery
  • Expertise: Holistic Intuition
    • Unconscious Competence
    • Pattern Recognition
    • Muscle Memory
    • Backtracking & Self-Evaluation
  • What’s The Difference Between
    • Talented Contributor & Effective Manager
    • Solo Entrepreneur & Entrepreneurial CEO
    • Answer: Effective Delegation
  • Two Types of Delegation
    • Crystallize & Codify
    • Form A Small Team With A Shared Mission
  • Crystallize & Codify
    • Externalize Insights
    • Formalize Approach
    • Thought Process Available For Evaluation
    • Basis for Self-Improvement
    • Defined and Repeatable Process
  • Approaches To Crystallize & Codify
    • Sketch A Drawing
    • Run A Google Search
    • Craft A Metaphor (e.g. Computer Virus)
    • Write A Program To Solve Part Of Problem
    • Build A Spreadsheet
  • Examples of Crystallize & Codify
    • Rules Of Thumb
    • Checklists
    • Recipes
    • Model or Simulation
  • Now That It’s Out Of Your Head
    • You Can Have Conversations
    • Solicit Suggestions For Improvement
    • Compare Notes With Other Experts
    • Refine Based On Broader Experience
  • Questions For Audience: Crystallize
    • How Do You Capture Your Expertise?
    • I Will Jot Or Sketch On a 3×5 Card
    • Anyone Want to Offer an Example?
  • Recap: The Difference Between
    • Talented Contributor & Effective Manager
    • Solo Entrepreneur & Entrepreneurial CEO
    • Answer: Effective Delegation
  • Two Types of Delegation
    • Crystallize & Codify
    • Form A Small Team With A Shared Mission
  • Keys To Forming A Small Team
    • A Common Mission or Desired End
    • Metrics For Measuring Progress
    • Shared Situational Awareness
    • Each Member Can Link Actions to Goals
  • Limit of “I’ll Know It When I See It”
    • Problem Grows Bigger Than One Person
    • You Need a Team
    • Often With Several Experts
  • Product Team Example
    • One Table / Two-Pizza Meeting
    • Need Different Engineering Experts
    • Power, Mechanical, Software,
    • Engineering Is About Trade-offs
    • Cost, Performance, Development Time
  • Individual Expertise vs. Team Decision Making
    • Two Key Differences
      • Trust
      • Shared Situational Awareness
    • New Challenge: Blending Expertise On A Team
  • Models That Blend Expertise For Team Decision Making
    • Recognition Primed Decisions – Klein
    • Principles of Maneuver Warfare – Lind
    • Decision Tree Model – Howard
    • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses – Heuer
  • Recognition Primed Decision
    • Useful in Emergencies and Crises
    • Depth-First Search of Possibilities
    • Agree On a Model of Situation
    • Generate Possible Courses of Action
    • Select First One That Works
    • Source: Klein “Sources of Power” & “Intuition
  • Principles of Maneuver Warfare
    • Useful For Rapid Decision Making
    • One Mission / One Main Effort
    • Push Decisions Down (Close to Facts)
    • Reconnaissance Pull: Guided By Facts
    • Source: Lind  “Principles of Maneuver Warfare
  • Decision Tree Model
    • Used to Organize Sequence of Decisions
    • Helps Bound Uncertainty
    • Identify Choices and Probable Outcomes
    • Each Outcome In Term has New Choices
    • Example: Fault & Diagnostic Trees
    • Source: Howard “Decision Analysis” (See also Howard’s papers)
  • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
    • Offers Clarity on Facts & Key Hypotheses
    • Avoids “A vs. B” Thinking; More Options
    • Make a Table
    • Hypotheses In Columns, Facts in Rows
    • Cell: Fact Supports, Contradicts, or No Effect
    • Shifts Focus to Getting New Facts
    • Source: Heuer “Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
  • Improving Team Decisions
    • Gary Klein’s Pre-Mortem Technique (See “Performing a Project Premortem“)
      • Assume Project Has Failed
      • Identify Possible Sources of Failure
      • Add Risk Mitigation Efforts to Address
    • Russell Ackoff s Decision Record (see Chapter 21 of “Ackoff’s Best“)
      • Each Participant Writes Down Separately
      • Reasons for Decision, Likely Outcome(s).
      • Review As Impacts Become Clear
  • Recap: Limits of “I’ll Know It When I See It?”
    • Moving Beyond Personal Expertise
    • Two Types of Delegation
    • Crystallize & Codify
    • Form A Small Team With A Shared Mission
    • Effective Teams Have Many Experts
    • Requires Clarity on Facts and Hypotheses
  • SKMurphy –  What We Do
    • We Offer Customer Development Services
      • New Technology Introduction
      • Focus: Early Customers & Early Revenue
    • We Assist On Strategic Decisions
      • Niche Identification and Selection
      • Pricing
      • Negotiation Sequence and Framework
  • Please Turn In Evaluations
    • Help Us Improve The Recipe for This Talk

Update Sat-Mar-13: For an elaboration on the Expertise / Personal Mastery slide’s “Master Not Only The Technical But Also Emotional Aspects Of a Problem” see “Recurring Problems Have Both Technical and Psychological Roots

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8 Comments

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